| Metal | 2025 return for EUR investors | Expected upside for 2026 (from Jan 19 spot) | 5-year view (avg per year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | about +43% | about +5% to an end-2026 target near $4,900 | about +0.5%/yr to about +8.5%/yr (scenario range) |
| Silver | about +115% | about +7% to $100, up to about +54% to $144 | about -6%/yr to about +9%/yr (scenario range) |
What actually happened in Europe in 2025
In USD, 2025 was extreme for both metals. In EUR, the returns were smaller because the euro strengthened versus the dollar during 2025. That currency move cuts the EUR return even if the metal rises in USD. The result was roughly +43% for gold and +115% for silver in EUR.
Why gold and silver are moving now
January's move is not just technical momentum. Tariff headlines tied to Europe have pushed investors toward classic safety assets, and both metals printed new records as risk headlines flared.
Gold also has a steady buyer in the background: central banks. That persistent demand keeps a baseline bid under the market even when risk sentiment cools.
Silver has an extra engine
Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial one. It is used in electronics, cars, appliances, and especially in solar cells and power transmission. Industrial demand is large enough that supply deficits can matter quickly, which is why silver can outperform gold in percentage terms but also reverse harder.
What the 2026 forecasts really say
Gold: big-bank forecasts cluster in a tight range. The typical end-2026 view is roughly flat to about +5% from mid-January levels, with upside targets around $4,900 to $5,000 during the year.
Silver: the range is far wider. Some forecasts look for a cooling range in the $58 to $88 area, while more momentum-driven calls argue for $100 to $144. That is why the "expected upside" is a range, not a point.
The Europe-first takeaway
For EUR investors, the metal move is only half the story. Your return is metal price plus the EUR/USD move. 2025 showed that even a powerful USD rally can be dampened in EUR if the currency shifts the other way.
Gold is usually the calmer option because it is driven more by insurance demand and reserve flows. Silver is the spicier option because it is pulled in two directions at once: fear trades and industrial demand.
Assumptions behind the 5-year ranges
The long-horizon numbers are scenario math, not a promise. The low-end and high-end ranges are based on published forecasts and scenario paths for the next few years, translated into a simple annualized range. That is why the gold range is narrower and the silver range is wider.
Example only. Forecasts change and metals are volatile. This is information, not advice.