2025 snapshot (price index, no dividends)
The table below uses the S&P 500 price index at year end 2024 and year end 2025, then converts those values using end of year USD/SEK and USD/EUR exchange rates. Because this is the price index, dividends are not included.
| 2025 snapshot (price index, no dividends) | Result |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 return in USD | +16.39% |
| USD change vs SEK (USD/SEK) | -16.66% |
| S&P 500 return for a Swedish investor in SEK (unhedged) | -3.00% |
| USD change vs EUR (USD/EUR) | -11.78% |
| S&P 500 return in EUR (unhedged) | +2.67% |
Two bets in one: stocks and USD/SEK
When Sweden invests in the S&P 500, we are really making two bets at once: US shares and the USD versus SEK. In 2025, US shares went up, but the dollar went down so much that it more than canceled the stock gain in kronor.
The simple currency math
The unhedged SEK return is the stock return multiplied by the currency move: Return in SEK = (1 + USD return) * (1 + USD/SEK change) - 1. In numbers: (1 + 0.1639) * (1 - 0.1666) - 1 = -3.0%.
A 10,000 SEK example
If we started with 10,000 SEK in an unhedged S&P 500 position at the end of 2024, we would have ended 2025 with roughly 9,700 SEK, even though the S&P 500 itself had a strong year in USD terms.
Trading currency is not hedging
Buying an S&P 500 fund that trades in SEK or EUR does not automatically remove currency risk. If the fund is not currency hedged, the underlying exposure is still mostly USD. The trading currency is just the wrapper.
Europe in one line
For EUR-based investors, the same story happened but smaller: the dollar weakened versus the euro, so the S&P 500's +16% USD year became only about +2.7% in EUR.
Bottom line
2025 is a clean example of why currency matters: the S&P 500 rose in USD, but SEK investors saw a negative year once the weaker dollar was included.
Assumptions: Price index (no dividends), unhedged currency exposure, end of year exchange rates. Fees, taxes, and total return (with dividends) are not included.