A stock trades at 100 and pays a continuous dividend yield of 2 percent, and a one-year European call with strike 105 is offered. In the Black-Scholes model its price is a discounted expectation under the pricing measure, so two questions follow. How is that expectation evaluated in closed form, and how must the call price relate to the price of the put with the same strike and maturity? This lesson splits the payoff into a stock term and a strike term, evaluates both with one Gaussian integral, proves put-call parity from payoffs alone, identifies which normal probability is the pricing probability of exercise, and takes the expiry and zero-volatility limits.
Key terms
Standard normal CDF
Definition The standard normal density and the standard normal cumulative distribution function are
If is standard normal, then for every real . The function is continuous and strictly increasing from to , with , and the symmetry gives , so . It has no expression in elementary functions and is evaluated numerically, for example as . Every option formula below rests on one truncated Gaussian integral. For all real numbers and ,
To prove it, complete the square, , so that and
after the substitution . The same steps give the lower tail .
In plain words The value is the probability that a standard normal draw lands at or below . Weighting the normal density by moves its center from to and multiplies its total mass by , so a weighted tail is an ordinary tail of a shifted normal, times that factor.
Example The values and add to . With and the truncated integral gives
Multiplying the mean by the probability would give only , because the large values of all sit in the upper tail. The stock term of the call has the same feature.
d1 and d2
Definition In the Black-Scholes model of the next card, fix , write and , and assume , , and , with constant and . Then
With the forward price the same numbers are
so they depend on , and only through . Under the pricing measure of the model the terminal price satisfies
where is standard normal and independent of . Solving for gives the exercise event
The difference is positive, so always, and , so exactly when .
In plain words The number counts how many standard deviations of the median of under , which is , lies above the strike on the log scale, and it is negative when the median lies below. The call is exercised when the normal shock beats . The number is one standard deviation larger, the shift produced by weighting outcomes by the stock price.
Example Take the constructed inputs , , , , and . Then and , so the bracket is about and
The forward lies below the strike, which is why . Although is close to zero, and differ by almost .
Black-Scholes formula
Definition A European call with strike and maturity pays at , a European put pays at , and neither can be exercised before . Assume the Black-Scholes model. The market is frictionless with continuous trading, the money-market account is with a constant continuously compounded rate , and the stock pays a constant continuous dividend yield and has constant volatility , with ex-dividend price following
under the pricing measure for the numeraire . By the earlier lessons on replication and on the Feynman-Kac formula, a European claim whose payoff grows at most polynomially in , such as a call or a put, has the price . For and the call and put prices are
For the derivation, split the call payoff on the exercise event of the previous card,
The strike term needs , since is independent of . For the stock term write and apply the truncated integral with and , so that and
Discounting gives . The put uses the lower tail on , which produces and . The stock term carries because one share delivered at , without the dividends paid before , costs today, and the strike term carries because is cash paid at . With deterministic time-dependent , and the same formulas hold after replacing , and by , and . Stochastic volatility, discrete cash dividends and American exercise are outside the formula, and averaging stochastic parameters inside it is not justified.
In plain words The call hands its holder the stock against payment of the strike, but only on the exercise event. The strike leg is the discounted strike times the pricing probability of exercise. The stock leg is the prepaid stock times a different probability, , because is largest on exactly the outcomes where the call pays most, so those outcomes weigh more.
Example With the constructed inputs, and . The call has stock leg and strike leg . The put has strike leg and stock leg . Hence
Multiplying the unconditional mean by the exercise probability in the stock leg would give , a negative price for a payoff that is never negative.
Put-call parity
Definition Let a European call and a European put have the same underlying stock, strike , maturity and settlement. For every value of ,
since at most one of the two terms is nonzero, and both vanish at . Suppose a claim to one share at , without the dividends paid before , costs at time , a payment of at costs , and trading is frictionless. Then the law of one price gives
or . The argument uses only these two prices, not the lognormal law or , so parity holds in every arbitrage-free frictionless model with these prices for the prepaid share and the zero-coupon payment. With stochastic rates becomes . The Black-Scholes formulas satisfy it because . If a quoted call and put violate it, buying the cheap side, selling the expensive side and offsetting with the share and the bond gives an arbitrage. Parity needs European exercise. For American options on a stock without dividends and with only the inequalities
hold, and with transaction costs or different borrowing and lending rates the equality widens into a band.
In plain words A long call and a short put with the same strike pay in every state, which is the payoff of a forward contract with delivery price . Portfolios with the same payoff must cost the same, so the call minus the put equals the cost of a share delivered at minus the cost of paid at . The call and the put have equal prices exactly when the strike equals the forward.
Example In the constructed example , and also . The difference is negative because exceeds . Suppose, as a constructed quote, that the put trades at while the call trades at its model price. Sell the put, buy the call, sell short shares and pay the dividends owed on them by shorting further shares, so the short position grows to one share at , and lend . The cash received today is
and at the options pay , closing the short costs and the loan returns , so nothing is owed.
In-the-money probability
Definition Under the hypotheses of the Black-Scholes formula, with ,
the probability under the money-market pricing measure that the call finishes in the money. The put finishes in the money with -probability , since , and is the price of a claim that pays one unit of cash when . The other factor is a probability under another measure. Define on by the density , which is positive with -mean and makes the share with dividends reinvested, worth , the numeraire. Its conditional density given is , so the stock-term computation of the formula card gives , and
Neither number is a physical probability. If under the ex-dividend price follows , then
which equals only when . The next lesson shows that is the delta of the call.
In plain words The value is the chance of exercise under the pricing weights that make discounted prices martingales, a pricing weight and not a forecast. The value weights each outcome by the stock price reached there, so it is larger. Two people with different views of the expected return compute the same option price and different physical probabilities of exercise.
Example In the constructed example and , and the claim paying one unit of cash on exercise is worth . If the constructed physical drift of the ex-dividend price is , then and the physical probability of exercise is about , different from both. With it would equal .
Expiry and zero-volatility limits
Definition Fix , and constants and . The Black-Scholes prices have the following limits.
- Expiry. As with fixed, and .
- Zero volatility. As with fixed, and , where .
- Extreme spot prices. As , and . As , and .
In the expiry limit with , the bracket in and tends to while , so both tend to or both to with the sign of , and the discount factors tend to . When , , both probabilities tend to and . In the zero-volatility limit the forward form gives the same picture with in place of , applied to with the discount factor held fixed. The formulas need and , and substituting or into divides by zero. The values at the boundary come from the contract and the model. At the option is its payoff, and with the stock price under grows deterministically and ends at , so the value is the discounted payoff . Both agree with the limits. For and the call lies strictly inside its bounds, , because , and .
In plain words With no time left or no randomness there is nothing to average. At expiry the option is worth its payoff, and with zero volatility the stock arrives exactly at the forward, so the option is worth the discounted payoff computed at the forward. At the money, meaning in the expiry limit or in the zero-volatility limit, both normal probabilities tend to one half rather than to or , and the price still tends to the zero payoff.
Example In the constructed example , so the zero-volatility limits are and . Along the way, gives and , and gives and . Keeping and shrinking the time to gives and , close to the payoffs and at the current price.
Check yourself
- A European call on a stock without dividends has , , and , and it trades at the constructed price . Which price of the European put with the same strike and maturity does parity require, and why is no volatility needed? If the put trades at , which trades lock in a riskless profit?
Show the answer
The discounted strike is , and with parity gives
No volatility is needed because parity follows from the payoff identity and from the prices of one share and of paid at , without any model for . A put at is too cheap. Buy the put and one share, sell the call and borrow . The cash today is . At the options pay , the share is worth and the loan costs , so the position owes nothing.
- A constructed call has , , , , and . A colleague says the probability that it is exercised is . Compute , and, for a physical drift , the physical probability of exercise. Which of these does the option price depend on?
Show the answer
The bracket is , so and . Then and . The pricing probability of exercise under is , since exercise is the event . The number is the probability of the same event under the stock-numeraire measure, and with it is the delta of the call, which is a hedge ratio. Under the drift term is , so
so the physical probability is . The price uses only and and is the same for every value of .
- Take , , and . Find the limits of the call and put prices as . Then set the strike equal to the forward and find the limits again. A classmate argues that the call in the second case should tend to half of something positive, since both normal probabilities tend to one half. Is that right?
Show the answer
The forward is , so and . The call tends to
and the put tends to . At the formulas already give and . With , parity gives for every . Here and , so
which tends to , the discounted payoff at the forward. The classmate’s argument fails because both legs tend to half of the same amount, , and cancel. At the formula gives , and the price decreases to as decreases.